CZORSZTYN RESERVOIR × DUNAJEC · READING THE CATCHMENT FROM ORBIT

How much electricity is in the snow? A dam is fed by its catchment — and the catchment is visible from orbit.

A hydropower operator knows the reservoir. What it does not know is the future inflow: how much water will melt out of the snowpack, how much evaporation will take, how much rain will add. We observe the whole catchment from orbit and turn it into an inflow forecast weeks ahead — shown here against a working dam. Catchment geometry is real; the plotted curves are illustrative (method demo).

      MEASUREMENT CHAIN · SNOW → CATCHMENT → INFLOW → RESERVOIR → TURBINE → MWMETHOD STUDY · ORBISPECT
    

RESERVOIR CATCHMENT

1,147 km²the upper Dunajec down to the dam section — Tatras, Podhale, Gorce. Every pixel observed from orbit every few days

WHAT WE WEIGH

3 streamssnowpack and its water content · catchment precipitation and evaporation · soil moisture — from satellite constellations

HORIZON

2–6 weeksinflow forecast with an uncertainty band — enough to plan turbine operation and reserve level

Snow season in the catchment — snowpack water content

SNOW (SWE)INFLOW

ILLUSTRATIVE CURVE (METHOD DEMO): SPRING MELT TURNS THE SNOW STORE INTO AN INFLOW WAVE — VISIBLE FROM ORBIT BEFORE A RIVER GAUGE REGISTERS IT.

Inflow forecast — P10–P90 band

P50P10–P90OBSERVED

ILLUSTRATIVE CURVE (METHOD DEMO): THE UNCERTAINTY BAND NARROWS AS THE CATCHMENT IS WELL OBSERVED — THE OPERATOR GETS SCENARIOS, NOT A SINGLE NUMBER.

How it works — without opening the engine

1. The reservoir is a battery; the snow is its charger. Through winter the catchment stores water in its snowpack. From orbit we measure how much water actually sits in the snow (not just where it lies) — so we know how much energy is "waiting in the mountains" before it runs off.

2. A catchment water balance, not a backward-looking reading. A river gauge tells you what already happened; we estimate what is still coming: precipitation minus evaporation minus infiltration — for each part of the catchment separately, every few days, even through cloud, where radar carries the signal.

3. The operator gets a decision, not data. An inflow forecast with a P10–P90 band maps directly onto the turbine operating plan, the flood-reserve level and the value of energy under contract. Method details are shared with clients — results are validated publicly against national river gauges.

PRODUCT: WATER PACKAGE → METHOD & VALIDATION →

Who uses this

HYDROPOWER OPERATOR

Plan the turbines

Schedule generation and reserve drawdown weeks ahead instead of reacting to today's gauge reading.

GRID / ENERGY TRADER

Price the water

Translate expected inflow into expected output, and hedge or contract energy with the uncertainty band attached.

FLOOD-RESERVE MANAGER

Hold the right margin

See the melt wave forming in the catchment early, so reservoir headroom is set before the water arrives.

REGULATOR

Audit the basis

Independent, catchment-wide observation that can be checked against national river gauges.

Method & limits

THE SIGNAL: Water stored in the snowpack, catchment precipitation and evaporation, and soil moisture — observed across the whole contributing area and combined into an inflow estimate, not a single sensor reading.
UPDATE CADENCE: Refreshed every few days as new passes come in; optical signals depend on clear sky, while radar continues through cloud.
WHERE LEAD-TIME HOLDS: The 2–6 week horizon is strongest when inflow is snowmelt-driven and the catchment is well observed; it shortens for flashy rain-driven events and where persistent cloud thins the optical record.