Two gates, two stories
Bosphorus (-12%): the gate for legal exports — Ukrainian, Romanian and Kazakh grain in transit. The decline reflects the war and the rerouting of some cargo onto the Danube and Constanța.
Kerch (+52%): the gate to the Sea of Azov — Russian grain and steel exports. The half-again rise since 2023 is consistent with rerouting of Russian logistics through Azov, not proof of cargo type or origin. The transit signal indicates vessel movement, nothing more.
We see the fields too: where the war cuts off statistics, satellites still measure plantings — our pipeline tracks oblast-level yields across Ukraine back to 1990 (national statistics plus satellite-derived estimates).